Statement by the owner of SGAmmo, Sam Gabbert

[squawberryman]

News from Shotshow 2024: I just got home from 4 days in Las Vegas at the shotshow, where I met with the people from the factories we work with, factory sales people, factory directors and owners, importers, etc. The big point of discussion seemed to be shortness in supply for nitrocellulose, which is the raw material used to make gunpowder and other propellants and explosives. Based on these conversations, the issue seems to be based on 2 factors, decreased availability in the supply chain and increased demand for the manufacturing of military ordnance. Getting into the details and a little more, a huge percentage of the nitrocellulose used to make gunpowder historically came from China and Russia, however according to my conversations with industry partners, the Chinese manufacturers who historically were the biggest suppliers at over 30% of the market share are no longer willing to ship raw nitrocellulose to the USA or NATO member countries in attempt to reduce the USA & NATO's ability to supply Ukrainian forces with artillery shells, and of course Russia who historically was the 2nd biggest supplier is out of the supply chain as well. This decrease in supply in raw material has gunpowder manufacturers in the USA raising prices dramatically and cutting off many of the smaller ammo manufacturers. The 2nd part of this issue is the demand for military ordnance, like 155mm artillery shells that use huge quantities gunpowder propellants, and the gunpowder manufacturers switching production to this type of gunpowder with what supply of nitrocellulose they do get. The first reason is that they always put the US government's needs before those of the commercial market, and the second reason is that it is simply much more profitable to manufacturer military ordnance than it is small caliber ammunition, so they get a much more profitable price manufacturing powder for artillery shells. In conclusion, while most of the factories seem to have gunpowder stockpiled today, this issue is expected to catch up to them no later than the summer of 2024 and possibly within a few months, and when it does it will mean the factories will be capable of producing much less small caliber ammunition to sell to the US commercial market. If demand for ammo is low to moderate, you may not see a big change, but if demand were to go way up as it does periodically, the factories will not be able to ramp up capacity to fill that demand. In my opinion, a lot could go wrong in the commercial ammo supply chain in 2024 and it would be wise to stock up sooner than later as 2024 price increases have just started to set in on just a handful of select items so far, and availability is still good which has held prices down temporarily.

[45dragoon]

Wow.

Thanks so much . . .

Mike

[doninnh]

Well, The year I switched from 30-338 to 300win I did a TDY to Black Hills Ordnance Depot in SD,  This place was closing in about 1 or 2 years. They had a German contractor in destroying stuff , some  by burying and setting it off. Other stuff was steamed out and converted to fertilizer. The whole place was geared to WWII ops, they ran an overhaul factory for 90 mm shells, I wonder how much longer(1963) those were going to be needed. Odd thing 6 years later I worked a project where we hung tv cameras to the barrels of 90 mm AA guns just using the servos. They had a burner thing where small ammo, fuses, boosters, and such where burned, One of the five G I on the Depot said to us gee they made me turn in my 30-06 match ,let go see if they have burned it yet. They had ,during our talks we had asked how much he had? Oh 99,000 rounds 20 cardboard in wooden crates, figured out to about 8 tons. How much 06  is in use today in the military. Even if it was possible to move 8 ton of match, Can't you see the local fire chief finding out someone had 8 tons of ammo in their garage. They moved stuff from that place to other storage places over those 2 years, took something like 11,000 railroad cars. It took 6 gondola railroad cars to hold the steel from the 1917 Enfield rifles they burned. When was the last time anyone was able to buy large rifle primers in any amount local ones anyway.
Have a nice day Don K..

[contender]

I can echo squawberryman's findings. Apparently the fact that the good old USA has become reliant upon foreign goods,, especially with countries not very friendly with us,, is proving to be a big problem for us little guys.

Not a good thing for sure.

[harold89]

Thanks for the insight 👍.

[contender]

After having a few discussions at SHOT myself,, I decided to stock up on the one powder I was a bit too low in,, 2400. I ordered (2) 8 lb jugs today. They should be here by the end of the week. Let the fun begin, and let the folks who fail to prepare whine & cry. (Most of the folks here are pretty well prepared too!)

[marlin35]

My concern is that we never got the primer problem sorted. I hope another shortage doesn’t take them from endangered to extinct.

[x101airborne]

I am buying cases of factory ammo every week and keeping most of my reloading components except for mission specific needs. Yesterday I got in a 200 round case of 204 Ruger and a 1500 round 20mm can of 124 gr. 9mm Nato. I am still going to cast and load around 2K 357 mag loads. These are more of a 38+P in a 357 case though.

[contender]

I'm hoping the primer thing is going to see a little relief soon. Apparently,, another company,, (not owned by Vista or WW,) is in the process of gearing up to make primers here in the USA. When I get more details,, I'll pass them along.

[messybear]

Thanks for the report. Ain’t it something? There’s always something

[dougader]

Several years ago, one the NRA magazines ran a story about how at least 2 chemicals needed in the manufacture of gun powder and primers was only currently being made by countries who are not our allies. This was before 2017 as I recall. I remember thinking, how stupid is that? It doesn't take a huge leap in logic to see how quickly US stores of arms and ammunition could be depleted... and here we are.

[bigbore5]

Simple rules of conventual warfare, he who runs out of ammo, loses.

[marlin35]

Does the US have the capability to manufacture nitrocellulose? What are the base components of nitrocellulose?

[dougader]

Jan 31, 2024 9:10:50 GMT -5 marlin35 said:

Does the US have the capability to manufacture nitrocellulose? What are the base components of nitrocellulose?

It was all laid out in the American Rifleman article years ago. If someone has the ability to do a search of their database, maybe the article could be pulled up and posted here...

[marlin35]

Okay so after some google foo, this is what I understand. Nitrocellulose is made by using a mixture of nitric and sulfuric acid to nitrate cellulose polymers. Cellulose is present in all plant material, with higher contents in woody and fibrous plants. Think wood pulp or cotton. So, this isn’t the product of some geographically available mineral deposits or a byproduct of environmentally damaging production. The process reads as being quite simple (relative to what the US is capable of manufacturing). It is much more simple than say lithium mining or pesticide chemical manufacturing. I gather that there is no more reason to depending on China or Russia for nitrocellulose than there is depending on the Middle East for oil.